Bad Headlines, More Guns Sold? Sept. NICS Numbers Up

Over the past couple of years, we’ve seen a consistent decline in the amount of firearms sold in the U.S., year-over-year. That trend saw a switch-up in September, as firearms sales were up over the numbers from September 2024.

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Back in the big leagues

In September of 2025, the National Shooting Sports Foundation says NICS numbers hit two important checkpoints. For the second month in a row, NICS numbers indicated sales of more than a million firearms in the U.S. again, after they’d dipped into six-figure territory back in July. And, NICS numbers showed a two percent climb over the September 2024 period. That growth over the previous year’s figures has been a rare thing to see in the last few months. So why did we see it?

First off, take note that the FBI’s own figures for NICS did not show an increase; the NSSF’s adjusted numbers showed the increase. Remember that NICS is a federal database inquiry system for background checks on customers at gun stores. It’s not just for firearms purchases, but also CCW permit applications and other interactions in some states. One NICS inquiry can mean one or more guns was sold, or none at all. To further complicate things, some states don’t use the NICS program, so it’s all just guesswork at a certain level.

The NSSF takes the FBI’s data and filters out as much junk information as they can, and comes up with a more accurate figure. In this case, the NSSF said there were 1,179,424 NICS background checks for gun sales in September of 2025.

Generally speaking, NICS numbers have been down this year, though; the third-quarter numbers show 3,249,497 firearms sold over July-September, a drop of 5.7 percent compared to Q3 in 2024.

Why the increase?

Why were numbers up for 2025? The sad reality is, bad news sells guns, and there were plenty of bad headlines in September. However, it’s possible that hunting season’s imminent arrival in many states also provided a more positive boost, as hunters get gunned up with new firepower before heading afield.